The West faces a snow drought
A Colorado River update and more.
December felt rainy. At as the year began, we saw major California reservoirs fill up. The U.S. Drought Monitor recently reported improvements in California and Nevada, listing them as entirely and nearly drought-free. On its face, all of this precipitation and rainfall seemed to reflect positive news for water supplies heading into 2026.
But the water supply story had another, less positive layer. As I’d watch rain fall, I’d check the weather in the Sierra to see if storms in the valley were translating to snow in the mountains. They rarely did, a major warning sign for the snow drought to come.
By mid-January, NASA satellite imagery recorded snow cover in the Western U.S. as the lowest recorded since 2001, and about one-third of the median. It’s been wet, but it’s also been warm, resulting in more precipitation falling as rain at higher elevations.
That’s concerning because snowpack acts as a natural reservoir for many western watersheds, providing a steady spring runoff. There is still time for more snow (we have all of February and March) but the situation is serious enough that Utah Gov. Spencer Cox again called on his constituents of all faiths to pray for precipitation.
In Utah, Great Salt Lake Basin snowpack is now at the lowest recorded since 1989, a fact that has, as one headline put it, “triggered alarm” in the Utah statehouse.
In California, a snow survey at the end of January registered the state’s snowpack at 59% of average for this time of the year. Not the worst on record, but not abundant.
Yet snow drought is especially severe in the Colorado River Basin, where negotiators for the seven U.S. states that rely on the river struggle to come up with an agreement over how to share a shrinking pie of water after a set of operating rules expire. “It’s just completely grim,” Brad Udall, a Colorado State University climate scientist told Politico last week for a story about Washington’s involvement in the negotiations.
“He said that snowpack above Lake Powell in Utah and Arizona is currently at 65 percent of median level — a situation that could be expected to produce just 50 percent of the typical runoff in the spring and summer.”
When I checked the chart for the Upper Colorado this morning, it showed snowpack at its lowest recorded in a period of record going back to 1986. Zero percentile.
As for the Colorado River…
On Friday, the U.S. government summoned the governors of states in the Colorado River Basin to Washington D.C. as negotiating teams have clashed for more than a year in closed-door meetings over compromising on how to share the river. It’s hard to know exactly how much progress was made as states aim to have a conceptual deal by a Feb. 14 deadline. The Colorado Sun’s Shannon Mullane has a good story on details.
The conflict over water follows the geography of the river. The Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming are deadlocked with Arizona, California, and Nevada of the Lower Basin, where most of the water is used. But the Lower Basin has cut significantly over the past decade; Now they want the Upper Basin to chip in with reductions in use. The Upper Basin, which has long had ambitions to grow into its full Colorado River allocation, is saying no, and everyone has their legal arguments prepared for why they are right. Are the Upper Basin states in denial? Sammy Roth, former L.A. Times columnist and author of Climate-Colored Goggles makes a strong argument that they are in a recent piece for the New York Times opinion pages. More on the story and perspectives from some of the key players involved on his Substack.
The Arizona perspective: On Tuesday, the Arizona House unanimously passed a bill to set aside $1 million for potential Colorado River litigation. The move came one day after the state’s water leaders met to discuss potential pathways forward. This slide deck offers a look at the varying magnitude of the federal government’s options for cutting use (pulled out one of the most notable charts below). As the state with lower-priority rights, Arizona could see a large amount of its water cut in some scenarios.
But, as Axios reported, the state’s top water water leader that the Washington D.C. meeting was a “breath of fresh air.” The Axios piece contemplated discussion of a short-term deal, potentially with incentives to the Upper Basin under a 1922 compact.
In the background though, the “snow drought” hydrology looms, putting even more pressure on states to negotiate, or at least continue down a collaborative pathway.
What I’m reading right now:
“Considerations for Assigned Water after Expiration of the 2007 Guidelines” by Sorensen et al. (Link) → In the Lower Basin, users of the Colorado River Basin are allowed to store, or bank, water in Lake Mead for future use. “But,” as the authors write, “nearly two decades of operational experience also have exposed unintended consequences.” These include “inequitable access” and crowding out” other programs.
“Entrusting Groundwater” by Sean Lyness (Link). Many states in the United States have recognized the Public Trust Doctrine, the notion that governments hold certain natural resource — land and water — in trust for the public’s benefit. To what extent does it apply to groundwater? While doing some research, I came across this 2024 Wisconsin Law Review article on the topic, and looking forward to learning more.
“The great government brain drain” by Monica Hersher and Jeffrey Mervis. (Link) An eye-opening analysis from Science shows how many PhDs the federal government lost last year at agencies ranging from the USDA to Department of Interior. It finds that about 11 times more PhDs were lost than gained last year.
Clearing out my tabs, inbox, etc…
Western U.S. Cities Open Wallets in Quest for Water (Circle of Blue)
2025 in Review: The Saline Lakes Ecosystems Integrated Water Availability Assessment (USGS)
Mexico agrees to make more predictable water deliveries to the US (AP)
“Reno, Nev. (Jan. 26, 2026) The Nature Conservancy in Nevada (TNC in Nevada), DRI, and the University of Wisconsin – Madison (UW-Madison) have developed the Nevada GDE Water Needs Explorer Tool. This new online resource helps land and water managers understand how groundwater supports groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) and how changes in water levels can affect them.”
Geothermal industry’s groundwater ‘loophole’ scrutinized (Nevada Current)
The rain vs snow distinction here is crucial and underreported. Most coverage focuses on total precipitation but misses how timing shifts when snowpack gets replaced by immediate runoff. I've watched this play out where reservoir managers get caught between flood control mode in winter and then suddenly facing summer deficits bc the natural storage system dissapeared.